IS
GLOBAL WARMING MELTING THE ARCTIC ICE CAP?
The alarming headlines were
everywhere during the late Summer and
early Fall:
The Melting Arctic
Melting Ice Displaces
Walruses In The Russian Arctic
Ice Melt Causing
Death of Polar Bears
And there were the
pictures of polar bears stranded on
sheets of floating ice, accounts of
their deaths "as a result of Global
Warming" and even a documentary about
the plight of the polar bears.
The emotional
appeal was enormous.
And the stories
on the ice melt made it seem
certain that the chart in
Al Gore's book
and movie must be accurate.
Arctic sea-ice extent as depicted
by Al Gore in
An
Inconvenient Truth. (Source:
An Inconvenient Truth,
p. 143)
The constant urgent
message is that Global Warming is happening now, and as
the Arctic ice cap melts the climate disaster is
begining to unfold before our eyes. We were told the
the ice is melting fast, it has melted far beyond
anyone's predictions; at this rate the ice will all be
melted by 2020. And we are told it is all a result of
Global Warming; the result of our use of fossil fuels
and their atmospheric by-product Carbon Dioxide.
How can I possibly convince you it
is not true; that none of it is really true? I will
try.
First, of all, may I ask you if you
know what is the status of the Arctic ice cap at
this moment? Is it continuing to melt away? Is it
all most all gone? No, no.
After the long Arctic "Day"
of 4,464 (186 days) hours of constant sunshine at the North
Pole, the long winter night is now settling in.
Soon the Sun will totally disappear at the North
Pole for 4,296 hours (179) of darkness. So now the Arctic
is freezing up . Ice is forming fast again.
The chart above from the Canadian
government Ice Service depicts the extend of ice
coverage in the Arctic waters north of Canada on a
week to week basis from May to late November in
2007. The red line is all time average ice cover.
As you can see the melt this season significantly
exceeded the "normal", but as you can also see, by
late November the ice cover had returned to normal.
Typical of the media frenzy about Global Warming,
the news was full of stories about the melt
all Summer but as the ice began to return to normal
the news coverage ended. The general public is left
with the impression that the Arctic is continuing to
melt and climate change Armageddon is upon us.
The simple meteorological facts are
that the melt happens every year. In the Spring and
Summer some of the ice melts and in the Fall and
Winter it reforms again. This year, however, more
ice melted than had ever melted since the pole has
been under satellite observation. But that satellite
surveillance only began around 1976.
While we didn't have satellites to
record it, we know from historical accounts that
more of the ice of the Arctic melted on at least two
previous occasions. One of those is Medieval warm
period when much of Greenland was ice free and the
Vikings settled there and established successful
farms. But, as that warm era ended, the ice spread
again to the coast of Greenland and the farms were
abandoned. There is also evidence of a dramatic
warm period on the northern perimeter of Canada,
where as the ice retreated during a recent Summer,
an array of hundreds of large tree stumps was
revealed. Investigation indicated that a forest of
giant redwoods once stood there. Neither of
these Arctic warm spells and the ice melt of those
ancient times can be attributed to mankind and our
fossil fuels. They stand as solid evidence that
natural climate change has continued on planet Earth
throughout its history.
A report published online by
World Climate Report for the science and public
publicity institute says there
exist historic observations, as well as
currently active research efforts, that strongly
indicate that there was a large sea-ice extent
decline from about the mid-1920s to the
mid-1940s. Writing in 1953, arctic researcher
Hans Ahlmann noted that “The extent of drift ice
in Arctic waters has also diminished
considerably in the last decades. According to
information received in the U.S.S.R. in 1945,
the area of drift ice in the Russian sector of
the Arctic was reduced by no less than 1,000,000
square kilometers between 1924 and 1944.”
It is clear that Al Gore's Arctic
Ice chart, like the infamous hockey stick
temperature chart, is flagrantly inaccurate.
Here is the bottom line:
This past
Summer's Arctic ice melt was neither unique or
unprecedented.
And as the for the reason for
this year's Arctic ice melt, NASA and university
scientists have detected an ongoing reversal in
Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by
atmospheric circulation changes that vary on
decade-long time scales. The results suggest not
all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in
recent years are a result of long-term trends
associated with global warming. While the
causes of the influx of warm water will require
further study, the latest observations from a
research project underway in the Arctic suggest
that the Arctic Ocean is moving toward a warmer
state, a change that could have global
implications. But any link with mankind's
activities remains unproven.
By the way, Global Warming
doomsdayers have tried to pretend the
Medieval warm period never happened. And
when faced with the proof that it did occur,
they dismiss it as "just a regional
anomaly." My retort to them is that this
season's Arctic melt could also be dismissed
as a regional anomaly. After all, at the
same time the Arctic was melting,
the Antarctic
Ice Cap at the South Pole was setting a
record for the greatest extent of polar
ice in observed history and at the same time
South America and much of the Southern
Hemisphere was experiencing the coldest and
longest winter in at least 50 years. On a
global basis, 2007 is falling far short of
the
doomsayers
prediction that it will be the
warmest year ever. It is now on track as of
the December 1st to rank no higher that
sixth.
Satellite composite image
of Antarctica,
showing the largest known
ice cap ever at Earth's South Pole
And now about the Polar
Bears, those
stories and the "documentary" film about
the death of a polar bear are not
factual. Storms and an encounter with
Walruses actually caused those deaths.
And
here are the actual facts: Timesonline
columnist James Delingpole reports that
in 1950 there were about 5,000
polar bears and that now there are
25,000. It is reported that of the
eleven tribes of polar bears tracked in
North America, nine are increasing in
number, and the other two are stable.
There are thousands
of healthy polar bears
prowling the Arctic at
this moment..
The
Arctic Ice melt media
blitz in the late Summer
of 2007 was a classic
example of how the media
and
environmentalists are
virtually promoting
Global Warming with
religious zealotry.
When the predicted
Global Warming enhanced
hurricane season failed
to materialize, they
turned their attention
to the North Pole.
Here are
some links utilized in
researching this brief:
And as
always I rely on the
website where you will
find a constant supply
of papers by scientists
who debunk global
warming at:
http://icecap.us/index.php
All the
while, the cornerstone
of the Global Warming
doomsdayers case for a
global climate disaster,
computer model that
predict runaway Global
Warming as result of
"Carbon Dioxide
Forcing" is crumbling.
I will explain that in
my next brief.
Past Coleman's Corner
entries:
The Global Warming Frenzy
Global Warming is a Scam
Are Carbon Dioxide and
Fossil Fuels Responsible For Global Warming?
The Force Behind Climate
Change on Earth
Want to look anything up?
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